2026-04-01
Background: The institutionalization hypothesis suggests that the negative association between parental separation and children’s outcomes diminishes as divorce becomes more socially accepted and widespread. Although the available evidence provides little support for this hypothesis, drawing definitive conclusions remains challenging due to limitations in existing studies. Objective: Using a large sample of Italian adolescents (ages 14–19), this study provides a robust test by comparing children from intact (N = 60,031) and non-intact (N = 7,969) families over 25 years, between 1996 and 2020. Leveraging both temporal and regional (NUTS-2) variation in Second Demographic Transition (SDT)-related behaviors, we examine whether the negative association between non-intact families and adolescents’ family satisfaction weakens as new family forms become more common. Methods: We apply logistic regression models to data from the Italian Institute of Statistics’ repeated cross-sectional surveys, Aspects of Daily Life, augmented with a composite SDT index for 456 region–year combinations. We model two outcomes: being very satisfied with family relations and being a little or not at all satisfied. Results: Adolescents living in non-intact families report a lower probability of being very satisfied than their peers in intact families, regardless of the level of SDT diffusion. Results for the probability of being a little or not at all satisfied provide greater support for the institutionalization hypothesis, as the disadvantage of adolescents living with a single parent is substantially reduced. However, non-intact penalties persist even at higher levels of SDT diffusion. Contribution: Our results show that the negative effects of family disruptions on adolescents’ well-being are more amenable to change than previously thought. However, these disadvantages should not be expected to ‘spontaneously’ disappear as a result of the diffusion of the SDT alone.
2026-03-25
Background: Returned children relocate to their original hukou locations after migration, often due to systemic barriers. China’s hukou system, which assigns rural or urban status, imposes institutional hurdles to those with non-local and rural hukou, resulting in educational exclusion and eventual return. Despite their non-negligible presence, these children remain hard to identify in surveys and overlooked in research on hukou-perpetuated educational inequities. Objective: This study examines how children’s return migration influences household monetary and time investments in their education. It also investigates how the association between return migration and educational investments varies by hukou status and whether it is moderated or mediated by parental coresidence. Methods: Using data from the 2013–2014 China Education Panel Survey, this study applies inverse probability of treatment weighting with log-linear regression and logistic regression models. Karlson-Holm-Breen decomposition is used to test the mediating role of changes in parental coresidence on investment outcomes. Results: Return migration is associated with a decline in the probability of investments in out-of-school education (e.g., extracurricular programs and private tutoring), particularly among families with rural hukou. The likelihood of quality time falls, but among households that do invest time, primary caregivers devote more time, consistent with the substitution of time for money under constraint. The absence of parental figures mediates a substantial share of the reduction in the probability of monetary participation in out-of-school education. Contribution: This study highlights how return migration and hukou status intersect to shape educational inequality and intergenerational mobility. It provides new evidence on the redistributive role of migration in family educational investments.
2026-03-12
Background: The choice between permanent settlement and temporary migration has garnered increased attention in international migration studies, yet the decisions of refugees remain underexplored. Objective: Building on the existing literature on return migration among voluntary migrants, this paper investigates the importance of socio-psychological and economic-skills contexts in refugees’ home and host countries for their settlement intentions. Methods: We use the register-based probability sample of the IAB-BiB/FReDA-BAMF-SOEP survey on Ukrainian refugees in Germany following the Russian invasion of February 2022. We employ linear probability regression models and sheaf coefficient analyses. Results: Similar to voluntary migrants, socio-psychological context shapes the settlement decisions of forced migrants. However, Ukrainian refugees who intend to settle are more economically disadvantaged than their counterparts, exhibiting differences in education, financial status, and welfare dependency. Notably, the highly educated and previously economically successful express a strong desire to return due to significant losses incurred as a result of the conflict. Conclusions: Both socio-psychological and economic-skills contexts significantly shape refugees’ settlement intentions, with economic factors proving slightly more influential, especially for men. That economic disadvantage challenges traditional hypotheses about settlement and return highlights the gendered and volatile conditions of the conflict. Contribution: This paper extends the general literature on the settlement and return migration processes of voluntary migrants to the specific context of forced migration. Moreover, it conceptually differentiates between and empirically compares the relative importance of socio-psychological and economic-skills contexts in refugees’ countries of origin and destination.
2026-03-09
Background: Seasonal fluctuations in mortality are a persistent demographic and public health phenomenon. The ideal mortality (IDE) framework estimates seasonal excess mortality by comparing observed outcomes with a counterfactual based on the lowest-mortality seasonal window. Objective: This study evaluates the validity of the IDE framework when applied to age- and sex-specific mortality in Serbia and proposes an age-structure adjustment (IDEadj) to address anomalies in age-specific estimates. Methods: Using mortality data for Belgrade and Vojvodina for the period 2015–2023, we construct the IDE baseline based on the three months with the lowest total mortality in each year. Age-specific mortality rates and life expectancy at birth (e₀) are compared across observed, IDE, and IDEadj scenarios. Results: The IDE framework yields higher life expectancy than observed mortality but produces systematic age-specific inconsistencies. IDE mortality rates occasionally exceed observed values at younger ages and fall to implausibly low levels at older ages, reflecting a mismatch between the age distribution of deaths in the lowest-mortality window and the annual pattern. The IDEadj approach corrects these distortions by aligning age-specific mortality with the observed annual age structure, while preserving the overall magnitude of seasonal gains in life expectancy. Conclusions: Age-structure adjustment improves the internal consistency and interpretability of seasonal mortality estimates without altering their aggregate magnitude. The IDEadj framework refines the original IDE approach and provides a demographically coherent basis for assessing seasonal mortality effects. Contribution: By identifying and correcting age-specific artefacts inherent in the IDE framework, this study provides a demographically coherent extension that enhances the analysis of seasonal mortality patterns.